Politics

Another election, another lack of me posting my thoughts about it beforehand. The ratio of things I think about posting to things I actually post is too big.

Nevertheless, here’s my prediction for how the electoral college points breakdown will go today:

My guesstimates include:

• Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, all “leaning Obama”, will go his way
• Minnesota and Wisconsin, also “leaning Obama” will go his way
• McCain will hold onto Arizona, despite the embarrassment of it being closer than it should be
• Similarly, the GOP will also hold onto Montana and North Dakota, although the race will be closer than any Republican would care to admit
• Arkansas, Georgia, and West Virginia will remain red states
• Missouri, where the race is super close, will go for Obama by a very small margin
• Key battleground states of Indiana and Ohio will go to McCain and Obama respectively – the former should have been an easy pickup for McCain, but I think he can still win it; the latter is always a crucial state, and I don’t see Obama losing it
• Virgina will go blue, a major indicator of how much ground the Republicans will lose tonight
• North Carolina will stay red, by a slim margin, despite a much closer battle
• Pennsylvania, which the GOP tried really hard to win, will still go for Obama
• And finally, Florida will go to blue in a close race, cementing a landslide victory for Obama

So there you have it, my predicted score is 349-189 for Obama. And, if I may add – WOOT WOOT!

The close wins (and, for the matter, the close loses) for Obama in certain swing or even traditionally red states will be partially attributable to increased voter turnout among minority and youth voters. Similarly, the overall voter turnout should be the highest by number of votes it’s ever been, and the highest by percentage of the population it’s been since JFK won. And beyond just winning the electoral points, I think Obama will capture a majority of the overall popular vote – probably around 55%.

Although I haven’t posted about it here so I don’t really have “proof”, it’s been pretty obvious to those who know me that I’ve favoured Obama from Day 1 – over the other Democratic candidates, over Hillary, and especially over McCain. I didn’t always expect that Obama would win, but I always certainly hoped for it.

And now, after a couple of years, waiting and watching, the audacity of that hope is becoming a brave new reality. God bless America.

here in my heart, yeah I do believe

The incomparable Douglas Adams once said “I love deadlines. I like the whooshing sound they make as they fly by.” So, indeed, as today is the election, I’ve almost run out of time to post my pre-election thoughts before they turn into post-election reactions.

Overall, I honestly don’t expect this election to change a whole lot in parliament: I predict another Conservative minority government, which leaves us with pretty much the exact same situation as before: the Conservatives form the government, and Harper remains as PM – but not having enough seats to force their own legislation through the House of Commons means that the other parties can still lambaste the Conservatives for not doing enough, while simultaneously blocking them from taking action.

I do think the Conservative party will pick up some seats though. They won 124 last time in 2006, and I’d expect that to increase to 130-something, maybe even push 140. So not enough to gain the magical 155 necessary for a majority, but at least enough to give Conservative supporters something to cheer about. And really, I expect almost all of those Conservative victories to come at the expense of the Liberals. They should almost certainly drop below 100, from their past total of 103 seats in 2006 to somewhere below 90 this time. Pretty good score for a rookie golfer, not so good for Stéphane Dion.

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