Thoughts on Today’s Canadian Federal Election

The incomparable Douglas Adams once said “I love deadlines. I like the whooshing sound they make as they fly by.” So, indeed, as today is the election, I’ve almost run out of time to post my pre-election thoughts before they turn into post-election reactions.

Overall, I honestly don’t expect this election to change a whole lot in parliament: I predict another Conservative minority government, which leaves us with pretty much the exact same situation as before: the Conservatives form the government, and Harper remains as PM – but not having enough seats to force their own legislation through the House of Commons means that the other parties can still lambaste the Conservatives for not doing enough, while simultaneously blocking them from taking action.

I do think the Conservative party will pick up some seats though. They won 124 last time in 2006, and I’d expect that to increase to 130-something, maybe even push 140. So not enough to gain the magical 155 necessary for a majority, but at least enough to give Conservative supporters something to cheer about. And really, I expect almost all of those Conservative victories to come at the expense of the Liberals. They should almost certainly drop below 100, from their past total of 103 seats in 2006 to somewhere below 90 this time. Pretty good score for a rookie golfer, not so good for Stéphane Dion.

But really, I doubt Harper is going to achieve as much as he hoped for when he called this election. The left is weak – the Liberal brand has taken some solid hits in the past few years, and Dion definitely lacks popular appeal. And yet the Liberals are still going to do reasonably well, as their centrist stance continues to attract people who see both the NDP and the Conservatives as too far either way. And really, the Liberals have Toronto, the red stronghold that is the GTA is worth an incredible 44 seats. Last election, the Liberals won 36 of them, the Conservatives 5, and the NDP 3. I really don’t see that changing too much, maybe the Conservatives and NDP will each win a few more, but the Liberals should still get at least 33 Toronto-area seats.

In the rest of Ontario, it should be very typical – NDP and Liberal in the North, while the Southwest should produce Conservatives in all the non-urban areas, with the urban areas going Liberal or NDP (K-W goes red, Windsor and Hamilton go orange). Ottawa-Hull and London are more interesting – they should be split, perhaps among all three.

Heading west, Manitoba will vote Liberal in Churchill, and then all blue in the south – except for Winnipeg, which should produce at least 3 NDP MPs and maybe even another Liberal or two. Winnipeg South should vote Conservative though. Saint Boniface is too close to call, with the Liberal incumbent (Simard) winning last time by < 2000 votes.

Saskatchewan will go all Conservative blue, except for the Liberal red island of Wascana where Goodale hasn’t lost in over three decades.

As for Alberta, three word summary – all blue baby! Talk about provincial unity.

B.C. will be good for a lot of Conservative seats too, mostly reelected incumbents. Everything in the east should match the Alberta blue, with the possible exception of Southern Interior. Interesting to see whether Atamenko gets reelected for the NDP, or if they switch back to Conservative. On the coast, the Skeena Bulkley Valley should go NDP orange again, as will Victoria and Nanaimo Cowichan. Every other riding outside of Vancouver should go to the Conservatives.

Vancouver itself is a puzzle – certainly all three parties will take victories here, it’s hard to say how many for each. Richmond, Quadra, Kingsway, Burnaby Douglas and Surrey North were all “too close to call” based on the very last pre-election polls.

In the north, Yukon goes red, NWT goes orange, and Nunavut will probably go red again, despite official endorsement of the federal Conservatives by the local government. All different candidates this time, we’ll see how that goes.

And now, let’s head all the way back over to Quebec, where another party suddenly appears, and should be good for +/- 5 seats of their past 51 seat total. I think the BQ has really established itself as more of a Quebec-issues party than a true “separatist” party as this point. Honestly, the separatist movement in Quebec is the weakest its been in decades (and I’m thankful for that). But the genius of the BQ is that they’re a powerful federal party who only caters to one province, and thus the residents of that province realize it’s their best way to ensure representation on a national level. Northern Quebec will go all BQ, while Southern Quebec will produce a number of BQ wins – with the notable exception of Liberal Montreal and the 12 to 14 seats they should pick up on the island city. Sherbrooke and Longueuil will also go all to the BQ. The Conservatives should still be able to win Pontiac, and at least 5 others in the Quebec City area. There are some “too close to calls” there too, particularly Beauport – Limoilou, Charlesbourg – Haute – Saint-Charles, and Louis – Hébert – all very, very close Conservative wins last time. (Luc Harvey won by 103 votes). If the Liberals gain even 1000 votes in each riding (which is likely, due to Dion being solidly Francophone, and more likely to be at the expense of the Conservatives than the Bloc), then I could see all 3 going back to the BQ.

As for Atlantic Canada, there should again be a three-party mix here. NB has some close ridings, like Madawaska – Restigouche (<3% Liberal victory in 2006) and Tobique – Mactaquac (<1% Conservative victory in 2006). I’m gonna say that in 2008, both go blue. Saint John, a 3% Liberal victory last time, is probably going to stay red.

PEI is definitely good for three Liberal seats, the only other province (besides Alberta) to give all their seats to just one party.

Nova Scotia is another three-party game, with a couple seats going to each.

And finally, NFLD is a pretty safe bet for the Liberals, except for the St. John’s area, where Avalon should go Conservative, and the two seats in St. John’s itself are tight in the polls, but should ultimately both go blue as well.

So, ultimately, my prediction is:

• The Conservatives will win 130-140 seats (slight gain)
• The Liberals will win 80-90 seats (slight loss)
• The NDP will win 30-35 seats (very slight gain)
• The BQ will win right around 50 seats (almost no change)
• Independents will win the same 2 seats as last time (no change)
• And the Green Party won’t win any seats, but will score higher in the overall popular vote than they did last election, thus claiming victory. (Although technically, they’ll lose that 1 seat they had from the party-switching Liberal Blair Wilson)

Anyhow, enough talk, time for me to go vote!

gonna take what we might take away